五维框架: 参与意愿·赚钱效应·资金状态·恐慌程度·研究活跃度 | 严格对齐方法论
| 参与意愿 | 29.5 ←恐慌 | 25% | 成交额+换手率+涨停封板率 | 成交萎缩/换手低→参与意愿冰点 |
| 赚钱效应 | 59.2 | 25% | 涨跌比+涨停跌停比+MA20占比+周涨跌 | 赚钱效应好→资金留存 |
| 资金状态 | 40.4 | 25% | 融资偏离+ETF5日 | 杠杆入场→资金看多 |
| 恐慌程度 | 63.3 | 25% | 波动率反转+20日涨跌幅 | 波动稳定→市场平稳 |
| 研究活跃度 | 6.3 ←恐慌 | 25% | 成交额偏离趋势(代理) | 成交冷清→注意力撤退 |
| 情绪阶段 | MSI区间 | 天数 | T+1 | T+5 | T+7 | T+10 | T+14 | T+30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 过度恐慌 | 0~30 | 70 | 58.6% | 60.0% | 54.3% | 57.1% | 60.0% | 58.6% |
| 恐慌 | 30~40 | 799 | 53.3% | 54.8% | 53.5% | 53.7% | 52.6% | 55.1% |
| 中性 | 40~60 | 1681 | 51.8% | 52.2% | 53.0% | 54.7% | 52.9% | 48.9% |
| 贪婪 | 60~80 | 55 | 56.4% | 41.8% | 49.1% | 43.6% | 34.5% | 56.4% |
| 极度贪婪 | 80~101 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
当前上证综指处于中性阶段。D1=29.5/D2=59.2/D3=40.4/D4=63.3/D5=6.3。恐慌是逆向指标，本仪表盘不构成投资建议。
| 指数 | 区间 | T+1 | T+5 | T+7 | T+10 | T+14 | T+30 | T+30均益 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 上证综指 | 过度恐慌 | 58.6% | 60.0% | 54.3% | 57.1% | 60.0% | 58.6% | |
| 恐慌 | 53.7% | 55.2% | 53.5% | 54.0% | 53.2% | 55.4% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 51.9% | 51.8% | 52.9% | 54.3% | 52.3% | 49.2% | ||
| 沪深300 | 过度恐慌 | 56.8% | 56.8% | 52.6% | 53.7% | 52.6% | 67.4% | |
| 恐慌 | 51.3% | 54.2% | 53.6% | 52.7% | 53.1% | 53.9% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 50.7% | 50.9% | 50.7% | 51.5% | 51.0% | 49.7% | ||
| 中证500 | 过度恐慌 | 53.8% | 61.5% | 54.9% | 46.2% | 58.2% | 67.0% | |
| 恐慌 | 52.0% | 55.6% | 54.6% | 51.8% | 52.5% | 54.3% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 52.2% | 51.1% | 52.5% | 51.9% | 50.9% | 47.7% | ||
| 中证1000 | 过度恐慌 | 51.4% | 56.5% | 55.8% | 50.0% | 55.8% | 60.9% | |
| 恐慌 | 52.5% | 53.0% | 52.5% | 48.9% | 49.0% | 50.9% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 54.2% | 51.8% | 51.5% | 52.1% | 50.8% | 42.8% | ||
| 上证50 | 过度恐慌 | 53.0% | 59.8% | 59.0% | 57.3% | 59.0% | 66.7% | |
| 恐慌 | 50.4% | 52.0% | 53.5% | 54.5% | 54.2% | 57.1% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 50.3% | 49.0% | 49.7% | 49.6% | 49.9% | 47.2% | ||
| 国证成长 | 过度恐慌 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 49.3% | 42.8% | 51.4% | 57.2% | |
| 恐慌 | 49.2% | 50.6% | 49.1% | 47.2% | 49.6% | 52.3% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 50.8% | 52.9% | 53.2% | 54.4% | 53.5% | 50.2% | ||
| 国证价值 | 过度恐慌 | 53.8% | 55.5% | 58.8% | 64.7% | 64.7% | 69.7% | |
| 恐慌 | 51.9% | 56.2% | 57.3% | 57.5% | 58.1% | 58.0% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 51.2% | 49.3% | 49.3% | 51.1% | 51.6% | 52.2% | ||
| 中证红利 | 过度恐慌 | 53.0% | 55.7% | 50.4% | 62.6% | 56.5% | 60.0% | |
| 恐慌 | 52.7% | 55.7% | 55.2% | 57.2% | 55.1% | 57.4% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 52.5% | 50.0% | 52.7% | 54.7% | 54.2% | 55.2% | ||
| 红利低波 | 过度恐慌 | 54.7% | 55.5% | 59.9% | 60.6% | 65.0% | 58.4% | |
| 恐慌 | 53.6% | 56.6% | 59.2% | 61.5% | 60.7% | 59.1% | ||
| 非恐慌 | 51.1% | 48.6% | 49.4% | 51.2% | 52.2% | 52.9% | ||
| 参考目标 | 55% | 62% | 70% | 65% | 58% | 58% | ||