多维概率共振 · 三种概率 · 复合信号 · 独立建模
将点位效率择时框架应用于全部32个申万一级行业指数，每个行业独立建模（独立波段划分 + 独立历史样本库）。回测口径：T日收盘信号 → T+1开盘买入 → T+1开盘卖出，含场内ETF成本（万3.5/单边）。
| 行业 | 日频年化 | 日频回撤 | 日频夏普 | 交易 | 周频年化 | 周频回撤 | 交易 | 信号 | 7日概率 | 中期概率 | 长期概率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 通信 | 73.60% | -23.63% | 2.55 | 279 | 50.32% | -20.63% | 163 | 做多 | 94.4% | 98.2% | 78.3% |
| 国防军工 | 66.21% | -32.11% | 2.10 | 239 | 42.14% | -33.48% | 135 | 做多 | 83.2% | 96.2% | 56.3% |
| 计算机 | 65.18% | -26.90% | 2.14 | 155 | 45.31% | -31.16% | 111 | 做多 | 77.9% | 94.4% | 72.0% |
| 非银金融 | 60.96% | -18.99% | 2.40 | 256 | 37.81% | -17.25% | 150 | 空仓 | 5.3% | 0.0% | 14.5% |
| 美容护理 | 59.56% | -18.60% | 2.24 | 161 | 32.78% | -27.39% | 111 | 做多 | 92.6% | 92.6% | 70.6% |
| 商贸零售 | 54.11% | -34.36% | 2.20 | 167 | 31.65% | -37.06% | 123 | 做多 | 0.0% | — | 4.9% |
| 医药生物 | 53.99% | -25.97% | 2.30 | 231 | 29.67% | -33.53% | 135 | 做多 | 72.9% | 67.6% | 42.8% |
| 电力设备 | 53.93% | -23.58% | 1.89 | 219 | 32.02% | -29.22% | 141 | 做多 | 95.0% | 99.2% | 91.2% |
| 电子 | 53.72% | -35.38% | 1.76 | 283 | 35.41% | -37.53% | 147 | 做多 | 91.5% | 93.9% | 76.0% |
| 机械设备 | 52.84% | -31.49% | 2.19 | 147 | 37.20% | -31.49% | 109 | 做多 | 83.8% | 93.0% | 67.0% |
| 房地产 | 50.21% | -16.92% | 2.35 | 154 | 28.07% | -18.83% | 120 | 空仓 | 57.4% | 88.0% | 69.5% |
| 传媒 | 48.58% | -35.42% | 1.73 | 243 | 29.72% | -33.64% | 137 | 做多 | 75.0% | 90.8% | 63.4% |
| 综合 | 47.84% | -28.98% | 1.90 | 195 | 38.42% | -28.61% | 129 | 做多 | 97.7% | 85.3% | 69.0% |
| 社会服务 | 47.76% | -28.13% | 1.85 | 201 | 39.00% | -32.49% | 133 | 做多 | 85.5% | 69.6% | 53.7% |
| 环保 | 46.75% | -28.93% | 1.97 | 215 | 28.80% | -28.79% | 123 | 做多 | 91.7% | 84.9% | 63.6% |
| 汽车 | 45.05% | -22.81% | 1.89 | 199 | 27.80% | -32.55% | 115 | 做多 | — | 98.1% | 87.3% |
| 有色金属 | 43.91% | -33.95% | 1.68 | 227 | 26.69% | -48.47% | 113 | 做多 | — | 68.6% | 43.9% |
| 基础化工 | 43.65% | -30.91% | 1.72 | 209 | 30.99% | -38.79% | 141 | 做多 | 85.5% | 87.3% | 49.7% |
| 钢铁 | 40.73% | -20.01% | 1.83 | 211 | 30.42% | -34.56% | 129 | 做多 | — | 86.7% | 68.5% |
| 家用电器 | 40.06% | -28.42% | 1.66 | 245 | 27.37% | -31.88% | 131 | 做多 | 87.0% | 94.8% | 55.9% |
| 轻工制造 | 36.40% | -31.55% | 1.61 | 237 | 27.19% | -33.09% | 145 | 做多 | 97.4% | 88.8% | 69.9% |
| 食品饮料 | 32.20% | -22.31% | 1.33 | 238 | 27.64% | -33.16% | 130 | 空仓 | — | 24.6% | 48.8% |
| 公用事业 | 32.10% | -25.21% | 1.55 | 233 | 20.99% | -33.78% | 155 | 做多 | 96.9% | 100.0% | 92.4% |
| 石油石化 | 30.73% | -36.59% | 1.48 | 179 | 18.51% | -36.59% | 115 | 做多 | 90.3% | 60.0% | 42.8% |
| 煤炭 | 29.21% | -26.46% | 1.47 | 188 | 22.57% | -29.17% | 118 | 空仓 | — | 23.8% | 20.2% |
| 交通运输 | 28.52% | -21.14% | 1.51 | 217 | 21.13% | -30.44% | 127 | 做多 | — | 81.4% | 62.6% |
| 采掘 | 26.07% | -21.29% | 1.26 | 123 | 16.00% | -33.06% | 75 | 做多 | — | 86.7% | 70.9% |
| 纺织服饰 | 25.04% | -34.51% | 1.13 | 255 | 13.93% | -35.92% | 139 | 做多 | 87.7% | 70.2% | 48.3% |
| 银行 | 16.72% | -29.97% | 0.95 | 202 | 15.88% | -29.47% | 122 | 空仓 | — | 7.1% | 15.5% |
| 建筑材料 | 15.52% | -60.81% | 0.58 | 67 | 10.60% | -60.81% | 39 | 做多 | 97.2% | 95.3% | 79.9% |
| 建筑装饰 | 8.60% | -72.73% | 0.35 | 51 | 5.86% | -72.73% | 35 | 做多 | 96.2% | 86.3% | 78.0% |
| 农林牧渔 | 5.40% | -62.91% | 0.24 | 37 | 4.00% | -58.83% | 23 | 做多 | — | — | 23.7% |
说明：各行业独立建模波段划分和历史样本池。回测采用日频检测 + 次日开盘成交 + 含ETF成本口径。 行业ETF通常波动更大，择时换手率高于宽基。多数周期性/成长性行业从择时中受益更大，防御性行业（如银行、公用事业）择时效果有限。